Questions? We've got answers.
What is Incubet?+
A prediction market on startup accelerator admissions. Founders applying to YC, Alliance DAO, Base, a16z CSX, or Techstars list their startup — then anyone can predict whether they get in. When decisions drop, the market settles ACCEPTED or REJECTED and winners split the pot.
I'm a founder. Why would I list my startup?+
Three reasons.
You get paid: the wallet that lists a startup earns 2% of the final pot when the market settles.
You get attention: your pitch video sits in front of people willing to put money on you.
You get proof: a market trading toward ACCEPTED is a signal you can screenshot. Listing takes one page →
You get paid: the wallet that lists a startup earns 2% of the final pot when the market settles.
You get attention: your pitch video sits in front of people willing to put money on you.
You get proof: a market trading toward ACCEPTED is a signal you can screenshot. Listing takes one page →
How much do founders earn, exactly?+
2% of the gross pool, paid when the market settles (whatever the outcome — you earn it win or lose). A $1,000 pot pays you $20; a $50,000 pot pays you $1,000. Your live payout is shown in big numbers on your market page when you're connected with the wallet that listed it. Rally your community, grow the pot, grow your cut.
Does listing cost anything?+
No. Listing is free — you just sign a message with your wallet to prove it's you (no gas, no spending approval).
How do I make a prediction?+
Connect a wallet (Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask, or any browser wallet), pick an open market, choose Yes or No, and stake USDC on Base. That's it — your position shows up under My predictions.
How do payouts work?+
Each market is a two-sided pool. When it settles, the losing side's stakes (minus a small platform fee) are split among the winning side, proportional to what each winner staked. If a market is cancelled, everyone is refunded.
When do markets settle?+
After the accelerator announces its decisions for that cohort. Deposits close before decision day, so nobody can predict with insider knowledge of the result. Settled markets move to Results.
Is Incubet affiliated with YC or the other accelerators?+
No. Incubet is an independent project and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Y Combinator, Alliance DAO, Base, a16z, or Techstars. We just run markets on publicly announced admission outcomes.
Is this legal where I live?+
Event contracts may be regulated in your jurisdiction. It's on you to know your local rules before trading — nothing on this site is investment, legal, or tax advice. See our Terms for the full picture.
How do fees work?+
10% is taken from each stake as it goes in — 8% to run the platform and 2% to the founder who listed the startup. The remaining 90% enters the pot that winners split. Nothing is charged on withdrawal, and the projected payout shown before you stake already accounts for all of it.
How is the outcome determined?+
By the accelerator's own public decision for that cohort. A market settles ACCEPTED if the startup is in the batch and REJECTED if it isn't. We don't judge anything ourselves — we record what the accelerator announced.
Why might settlement be delayed?+
Accelerators announce on their own schedule, and sometimes quietly. Predictions close on the application deadline, but the result can be days or weeks later. Every market shows a Timeline & payout panel with exactly where it stands.
What happens if a market can't be settled?+
If an outcome can't reasonably be determined — a startup withdraws, a cohort is cancelled — the market is cancelled and everyone gets their stake back (net of the fee taken on deposit). Nobody wins or loses on a cancelled market.
When can I predict?+
Any time between a market going live and its cohort's application deadline. Each market has a live countdown; once it hits zero, deposits close and positions ride until the decision drops.
Can I change or cancel a prediction?+
No. Predictions are final the moment they're placed — no edits, no cancels, no early exits. Deposits also close on the cohort's application deadline (there's a countdown on every market), and positions ride until the market settles. Make the call like you mean it.
What do I predict with? Do I need crypto already?+
No crypto required to start. Markets settle in USDC on Base, and you can top up right in the prediction panel with a debit/credit card, Apple Pay, or Google Pay — the onramp converts and delivers USDC to your wallet. Already hold USDC somewhere else? Use the transfer option to move it over from another wallet or chain.
Why Yes/No instead of Accepted/Rejected?+
Yes and No are what you pick — they answer the question at the top of every market ("Will X get into YC?"), the same way every other prediction market works. ACCEPTED and REJECTED are how a market settles: they're the real-world outcome. Pick Yes, win when it settles ACCEPTED.
Who can comment on a market?+
Anyone with a connected wallet — you don't need a position to join the conversation. Commenters who do hold one get a YES or NO badge next to their handle, so you can always tell who's talking their book.
Can I lose money?+
Yes. If your side loses, you lose your stake. Only stake what you can afford to lose — this is a market, not a savings account.